Indien: Quo vadis, E-commerce?

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Bis vor kurzem: Goldgräberstimmung in Indien. Der Umsatz im Online-Handel verdoppelte sich von innerhalb von zwei Jahren zu 22 Milliarden US-Dollar in 2015. Ein Jahr darauf nutzten bereits rund 400 Millionen Inder das Internet. Amazon-Boss Jeff Bezos sah in Indien künftig den zweitgrößten E-Commerce Markt, hinter den USA. Doch mit 2016 kehrte etwas Ernüchterung ein: Der Online-Handel stagnierte.

Während euphorische Erwartungen in 2015 noch für großzügige Investitionen sorgten, ging der Kapitalfluss in 2016 deutlich zurück. Online-Händler stellten ihre Geschäftspraktiken um, Verluste mussten begrenzt werden, die Strategie der Lockpreise bzw. Discount-Preise wurde zurückgefahren. Damit kam ein Prozess zum Halt, der etwa wie folgt beschrieben werden kann: Kapitalgeber investierten in Firmen mit hohem Umsatzwachstum, die Firmen wiederum nutzten das Kapital für eine Discount-Strategie, die zu mehr (aber unprofitablen) Kunden führten, die Verlust stiegen, aber das Umsatzwachstum lockte neue Investoren an und so weiter.

Die Big Player im Online-Handel (darunter Flipkart, Snapdeal, PayTM) haben schätzungsweise 2 bis 2,5 Milliarden US-Dollar Verluste pro Jahr eingefahren. Als Erklärung für stagnierende Umsätze rechnet das Beratungshaus RedSeer zudem vor, dass bis 2015 zwischen 20 und 30 Prozent des Online-Handelsvolumens von Mittelmännern aufgekauft wurde, welche die stark subventionierten Produkte zu höheren Preisen gewinnträchtig weiterverkauft haben. Ary Sen von der Jefferies Bank erklärt die Stagnation auch damit, dass seit 2015 keine neuen aktiven Online-Käufer mehr hinzugekommen sind, diese Zahl läge etwa bei 35 bis 40 Millionen.

Online-Händler setzen inmitten dieser Ernüchterung darauf, dass das schwache Jahr 2016 eine Ausnahme bleibe. Indien bleibt immerhin weiterhin das weltweit am schnellsten wachsende Land unter den großen Volkswirtschaften. Die Stagnation hat auch nicht alle Online-Händler gleichermaßen betroffen, Amazon ist Marktkennern zufolge auch in 2016 weiter gewachsen. Für ausländische Händler gibt nun ein möglicher Liberalisierungsschritt Anlass für neuen Optimismus: Während bislang für ausländische Einzelhändler (also: B2C) der Betrieb von Internetshops verboten war (Ausnahme: B2B), soll eine Liberalisierung ausländischer Direktinvestitionen in der E-Commerce Branche bevorstehen.

Dieser Artikel basiert wesentlich auf nachfolgendem Artikel der FAZ sowie des Economist. Hier können Sie die Lektüre zum Thema vertiefen: Growth at Indian internet consumer firms has stalled und E-Commerce: Auf der Überholspur

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