Kein flotter Dreier: Das geopolitische Spannungsfeld zwischen Indien, China, Pakistan

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Das Verhältnis Indiens zu seinen beiden großen Nachbarn im Norden ist bekanntermaßen spannungsvoll: Mit beiden Ländern, China und Pakistan, hat Indien bereits Krieg geführt. Eine besondere Bedrohungslage geht aus indischer Sicht von China aus, eindrucksvoll illustriert im Jahr 1998, als der Atomwaffenstatus Indiens der Öffentlichkeit bekannt wurde. „Warum denn Atomwaffen?“, wurde der damalige Verteidigungsminister gefragt. Antwort: „China!“

Die unterschiedlich bewerte Bedrohungslage lässt sich zunächst einmal mit Verweis auf die militärischen Kräfteverhältnisse erklären: Pakistan ist Indien unterlegen; gleichzeitig weist China eine deutliche Überlegenheit gegenüber Indien auf. Versuche einer Normalisierung der Verhältnisse zwischen Indien und Pakistan gab es; der schwelende Dauerkonflikt um Kaschmir lässt jedoch immer wieder Ressentiments aufflammen, muslimische Terrorangriffe (gesteuert aus Pakistan) torpedieren Bemühungen um eine Entspannung – gegenwärtig wirkt der erstarkende Hindu-Nationalismus in Indien Bemühungen um eine Versöhnung entgegen.

Die Spannungen zwischen Indien und China wiederum gehen einerseits auf Grenzstreitigkeiten zurück, andererseits auf das Vordringen Chinas in die Einflusszone Indiens. Indien teilt mit China eine 3.225 Kilometer lange Gebirgsgrenze. Diese Grenze wurde im Jahr 1914 von der Kolonialmacht Großbritannien gezogen, wird von China jedoch nicht anerkannt. Bis heute sind Gespräche über eine einvernehmliche Grenzregelung ergebnislos verlaufen. 1962 gab es einen nur 33 Tage andauernden Gebirgskrieg, kürzlich gerieten beide Mächte am Pangong-See in Ladakh aneinander: Man warf Steine aufeinander, Waffen kamen nicht zum Einsatz.

Mit Sorge nimmt Indien zudem wahr, wie China an Indiens Seegrenze herandrängt. Da sind zum einen die Stützpunkte, so an der Straße von Malakka und der Straße von Hormus. China hat zudem Tiefseehäfen in Myanmar und Bangladesh gebaut, die sich militärisch nutzen ließen. Gleiches in Pakistan. Auf Sri Lanka haben Sie einen Großflughafen errichtet, dazu einen militärfähigen Hafen. Als 2014 erstmals chinesische U-Boote in Sri Lanka im Tiefseehafen einliefen, kommentiert die indische Presse erschrocken: „Der Drache hat den Indischen Ozean erreicht“.
Indien, China, Pakistan: Drei Atommächte im Zwist. Einen Krieg kann keiner wollen, das Potential zur Eskalation besteht dennoch.

Dieser Artikel basiert wesentlich auf nachfolgendem ZEIT-Artikel. Hier können Sie die Lektüre zum Thema vertiefen: Kalter Krieg im 21. Jahrhundert

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